Valley business owners and tourism operators looking at advance bookings and other indicators expect commerce to increase 10 percent to 20 percent this summer versus last.

Officials report bookings for lodges in Yellowstone National Park are up 10 percent compared with the same time last year, and airline bookings also are up at least 10 percent.

A valley restaurateur reports increased advance reservations and expects to be up 10 percent to 11 percent this summer compared with summer 2009.

One segment of the economy that may see a significant increase is real estate deals. An industry watcher says the number of sales in Jackson Hole will rise at least 20 percent from 2009 – a lean year for transactions – and perhaps as much as 50 percent.

These advance looks come ahead of Memorial Day weekend, the traditional start of the summer season, and as Jackson Hole continues to face challenges from the recession that started in fall 2008.

Unemployment in April spiked to 12.3 percent, almost 3 percentage points greater than during the same month last year.

The development segment of the economy also remains slow. A valley architect reports there are some but not many projects in the pipeline, which doesn’t bode well for builders.

Still, the sense that tourism will improve over last year has buoyed some. Most remain cognizant of the important role Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks play in drawing visitors to the valley.

“Parks are the one place that seem to hold their own,” said Rick Hoeninghausen, director of sales and marketing for the lodges Xanterra Parks and Resorts operates in Yellowstone. “It looks like people are getting to the point where they are ready to get back to business in terms of travel.”

That sentiment is borne out by predictions from AAA, which expects the number of Memorial Day travelers to increase 5.4 percent over last year. In 2009, about 30.5 million Americans traveled over the long weekend, and that number should increase to 32.1 million, according to a AAA news release.

In the mountain region, which stretches from Arizona and New Mexico to Idaho and Montana, Memorial Day travel is forecast to increase 7.6 percent. AAA did not provide traveler numbers for the region.

While AAA expects travel by car to increase, air travel to Jackson Hole looks as if it is also up.

Mike Gierau, president of Jackson Hole Air Improvement Resources, said advance airline bookings for June, July and August are up “at least 10 percent so far” over 2009.

That translates into at least 18,000 additional visitors over the approximately 180,000 who came to the valley by plane last summer, “which translates into happy hoteliers,” Gierau said.

A bump in airline travelers usually turns into more eaters going to valley restaurants.

Gavin Fine is the owner of Fine Dining LLC, which has interests in valley restaurants Rendezvous Bistro, Q Roadhouse and Il Villaggio Osteria, as well as Bistro Catering. The opening months of 2010 are already outpacing 2009 at the eateries.

Third-quarter bookings are “way ahead of last year,” Fine said.

“I think you are going to see double-digit increases,” said Fine, who projected the four operations he oversees would be up 10 percent to 11 percent.

While some group business is flowing back into the market, Fine doesn’t expect it to be back in force until 2011.

To attract customers in 2009, some restaurants and lodges had to offer specials or packages. Fine said he has been running two-for-one deals to encourage valley residents to eat at his tables this spring.

Last year, the Wort Hotel’s general manager, Jim Waldrop, worked hard to keep from lowering room rates at the downtown property.

“It got as challenging as it has in my career to maintain that integrity,” Waldrop said.

He maintained room rates by offering food and beverage deals. He is less likely to do that this year and will instead offer packages that include taking guests to the national parks.

If conditions change, however, he may change strategies for the hotel.

“It is important to be nimble and be more proactive than reactive,” he said.

Still, Waldrop expects 2010 to exceed 2009. He also sees more group travel returning in 2011.

Jackson Hole Whitewater owner David Tibbitts has been busy repairing boats and hoping the weather changes so people want to go on the river. For some days this summer, he has sold all available boat space.

Calls seem to be a little ahead of last year.

Rafting companies have seen decreased passenger numbers the last two years. Still, the amount of business they do far exceeds what’s done in other communities that lack the draw of national parks, Tibbitts said.

“We’re pretty blessed by those two parks,” Tibbitts said.

In the real estate and development segment of the economy, summer and fall tend to be important seasons for showing and selling property and starting construction.

Heading into June, there are fewer properties on the market than there were last year, said David Viehman, a partner at Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates and author of the real estate newsletter The Hole Report. Last year, there were about 800 properties on the market. This year, there are about 675, he said.

Many landowners have pulled homes off the market, he said.

The number of transactions for the first six months of 2009 was 71, Viehman said. Already this year, there have been 115 sales with five weeks remaining before the end of June.

Such numbers lead Viehman to offer a conservative estimate that the number of real estate transactions by the end of the summer will be up by at least 20 percent. Transactions may be up by 50 percent, he said.

Viehman, though, offered some perspective on the current numbers. Through the first six months of 2007, there were 464 real estate transactions in Jackson Hole, he said.

An area of concern remains the commercial segment of the real estate economy, Viehman said. Lenders are reassessing and renegotiating loans made in recent years and because of decreasing rents, properties are valued less than in the past, Viehman said.

That means some commercial property owners may have to renegotiate their loans at more stringent terms or they will be required to sell their properties, Viehman said.

“The local banks seem to want to work with people,” said Viehman, whose market analysis can be found at www.jacksonholereport.com. The out-of-town banks, though, are “putting the squeeze on people.”

While there is some work in the pipeline at Carney Logan Burke Architects and the business is busier than last summer, there isn’t an excess of projects, principal John Carney said.

“It doesn’t have legs,” Carney said Tuesday. “It doesn’t have long-term strength beyond a few months.”

That doesn’t bode well for builders, Carney said.

“When I talk to my contractor friends, I do see a pretty slow summer for construction,” Carney said.

Carney also said he is surprised at how difficult it remains to get projects through valley planning departments. Such stringency isn’t helping the economy, he added.

“It continues to be difficult to get projects approved,” Carney said. “It might be in everyone’s interest to move things through quickly.”

Ultimately, any hopes for the performance of the economy this summer are judged by the boom years of 2007-08 and meager 2009.

Waldrop equated the year The Wort had in 2008 to a home run but said with a sense of humor that 2009 was not a strikeout but was more like getting a base on balls or maybe being hit by a pitch and advancing to first base.

This year, he has a reasonable outlook.

“We have a good, solid chance to hit a double,” Waldrop said.